我国南方冬季气候变暖前后极端降水事件分析   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5  

智协飞  张玲  潘嘉露 《热带气象学报》2011,27(2):166-172

利用我国南方逐日降水资料及逐月温度资料,采用Mann-Kendall突变检验方法,并计算极端降水的GPD(Generalized Pareto Distribution)重现值,讨论了气候变暖前后我国南方冬季极端降水事件的变化。结果表明,我国南方冬季气候变暖的突变发生在1991年前后,且气候变暖后我国南方冬季的极端降水强度普遍有所增加。利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料进一步分析气候变暖前后的环流场特征,发现东亚热带冬季风异常与我国华南、江南地区降水异常有显著的相关关系。东亚热带冬季风偏强(弱),华南、江南地区降水偏少(多)。气候变暖后中高纬度环流经向度加大,有利于北方的冷空气向南输送。此外,气候变暖后我国南方地面气温升高,海陆热力差异减小,东亚热带冬季风减弱,有利于西太平洋的暖湿气流向我国大陆东南部输送,并在东南部形成异常的水汽通量辐合,有利于形成强降水。气候变暖后,中高纬度与中低纬度异常环流系统的相互作用是我国东南部降水强度增加的主要原因。  相似文献   

Analytical solutions for the equations of motion of a space vehicle during the atmospheric re-entry phase on a 2-D trajectory     

Gabriel Mititelu 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2009,103(4):327-342

A practical and important problem encountered during the atmospheric re-entry phase is to determine analytical solutions for the space vehicle dynamical equations of motion. The author proposes new solutions for the equations of trajectory and flight-path angle of the space vehicle during the re-entry phase in Earth’s atmosphere. Explicit analytical solutions for the aerodynamic equations of motion can be effectively applied to investigate and control the rocket flight characteristics. Setting the initial conditions for the speed, re-entering flight-path angle, altitude, atmosphere density, lift and drag coefficients, the nonlinear differential equations of motion are linearized by a proper choice of the re-entry range angles. After integration, the solutions are expressed with the Exponential Integral, and Generalized Exponential Integral functions. Theoretical frameworks for proposed solutions as well as, several numerical examples, are presented.  相似文献   

Solving the linearized forward-speed radiation problem using a high-order finite difference method on overlapping grids     

《Applied Ocean Research》2017

The linearized potential flow approximation for the forward speed radiation problem is solved in the time domain using a high-order finite difference method. The finite-difference discretization is developed on overlapping, curvilinear body-fitted grids. To ensure numerical stability, the convective derivatives in the free-surface boundary conditions are treated using an upwind-biased stencil. Instead of solving for the radiation impulse response functions, a pseudo-impulsive Gaussian type displacement is employed in order to tailor the frequency-content to the discrete spatial resolution. Frequency-domain results are then obtained from a Fourier transform of the force and motion signals. In order to make a robust Fourier transform, and capture the response around the critical frequency, the tail of the force signal is asymptotically extrapolated assuming a linear decay rate. Fourth-order convergence of the calculations on simple geometries is demonstrated, along with a nearly linear scaling of the solution effort with increasing grid resolution. The code is validated by comparison with analytical and semi-analytical solutions using submerged and floating closed-form geometries. Calculations are also made for a modern bulk carrier, and good agreement is found with experimental measurements.  相似文献   

基于广义极值理论的潜在地震海啸源震级上限及强震重现水平的估计——以琉球海沟俯冲带为例     

张锟  任鲁川  田建伟  刘哲 《中国地震》2016,32(4):702-709

以琉球海沟俯冲带作为研究区,将广义极值理论用于估计潜在地震海啸源震级上限,首先分析了琉球海沟俯冲带的地震地质构造特征以及历史地震资料,界定潜在地震海啸源区,然后根据地震活动性特征按时间域进行分割,并提取各时间段发生的极限震级的地震样本,最后通过广义极值分布模型估计了该区域的震级上限值和强震重现水平,并对其进行了不确定性分析。  相似文献   

Crustal attenuation characteristics of S-waves beneath the Eastern Tohoku region,Japan          下载免费PDF全文

Muhammad Adeel Arshad 《地震科学（英文版）》2016,29(5):259-269

An inversion method was applied to crustal earthquakes dataset to find S-wave attenuation characteristics beneath the Eastern Tohoku region of Japan.Accelerograms from 85 shallow crustal earthquakes up to25 km depth and magnitude range between 3.5 and 5.5were analyzed to estimate the seismic quality factor Q_s. A homogeneous attenuation model Q_s for the wave propagation path was evaluated from spectral amplitudes, at 24 different frequencies between 0.5 and 20 Hz by using generalized inversion technique. To do this, non-parametric attenuation functions were calculated to observe spectral amplitude decay with hypocentral distance. Then, these functions were parameterized to estimate Q_s. It was found that in Eastern Tohoku region, the Q_s frequency dependence can be approximated with the function 33 f~(1.22) within a frequency range between 0.5 and 20 Hz. However,the frequency dependence of Q_s in the frequency range between 0.5 and 6 Hz is best approximated by Q_s(f) = 36f~(0.94) showing relatively weaker frequency dependence as compared to the relation Q_s(f) = 6 f~(2.09) for the frequency range between 6 and 15 Hz. These results could be used to estimate source and site parameters for seismic hazard assessment in the region.  相似文献   

Extreme temperature scenarios in Mexicali,Mexico under climate change conditions     

O.R. García Cueto  N. Santillán Soto  M. Quintero Núñez  S. Ojeda Benítez  N. Velázquez Limón 《Atmósfera》2013,26(4):509-520

Extreme weather events can have severe consequences for the population and the environment. Therefore, in this study a temporal trend of annual temperatures was built with a time series from 1950 to 2010 for Mexicali, Mexico, and estimates of 5- to 100-year return periods are provided by modeling of summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures. A non-parametric Kendall’s tau test and the Sen’s slope estimator were used to compute trends. The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was applied to the approximation of block maxima and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to values over a predetermined threshold. Due to the non-stationary characteristic of the series of temperature values, the temporal trend was included as a covariable in the location parameter and substantial improvements were observed, particularly with the extreme minimum temperature, compared to that obtained with the GEV with no covariable and with the GPD. A positive and significant statistically trend in both summer maximum temperature and winter minimum temperature was found. By the end of 21st century the extreme maximum temperature could be 2 to 3 °C higher than current, and the winter could be less severe, as the probabilistic model suggests increases of 7 to 9 °C in the extreme minimum temperature with respect to the base period. The foreseeable consequences on Mexicali city are discussed.  相似文献   

The 1988 Tennant Creek,northern territory,earthquakes: A synthesis   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

J. R. Bowman 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,60(5):651-669

Three large earthquakes with surface‐wave magnitudes 6.3–6.7 on 22 January 1988 were associated with 32 km of surface faulting on two main scarps 30 km southwest of Tennant Creek in the Northern Territory. These events provide an excellent opportunity to study the mechanics of midplate earthquakes because of the abundance of geological and geophysical data in the area, the proximity of the Warramunga seismic array and the ease of access to the fault zone. The 1988 earthquakes were located in the North Australian Craton in an area that had no history of moderate or large earthquakes before 1986. Additionally, no smaller earthquakes from the fault zone were identified at the Warramunga array, which is situated only 30 km from the nearest scarp, between the 1965 installation of the array and 1986. The main shocks were preceded by a swarm of moderatesized (magnitude 4–5) earthquakes in January 1987 and many smaller aftershocks throughout 1987. Careful relocation of all teleseismically recorded earthquakes from the fault zone shows that the 1987 activity was concentrated in an area only 6 km across in the gap between the two main fault scarps. The main shocks also nucleated in the centre of the fault zone near the 1987 activity. Field observations of scarp morphology indicate that the scarp is divided into three segments, each showing primarily reverse faulting. However, whereas the western and eastern segments show movement of the southern block over the northern, the central scarp segment shows the opposite, with the northern block thrust over the southern block.

Analysis of the first arrival times at Warramunga suggests that the three main shocks were associated with the western, central and eastern scarp segments, respectively. The locations of aftershocks determined using data from temporary seismograph arrays in the epicentral area define three inclined zones of activity that are interpreted as fault planes. In the western and eastern portions of the aftershock zone, these concentrations of activity dip to the south at 45° and 35°, respectively, but in the central section the aftershock zone dips to the north at 55°. Focal mechanisms derived from modelling broadband teleseismic data show thrust and oblique thrust faulting for the three main shocks. The first event ruptured unilaterally up and to the northwest on the westernmost fault segment, while the third main shock ruptured horizontally to the southeast. Modelling of repeat levelling data from the epicentral area requires at least three distinct fault planes, with the eastern and western planes dipping to the south and the central plane dipping to the north. The combination of scarp morphology, aftershock distribution and elevation data makes a strong case for rupture of fault planes in conjugate orientation during the 22 January 1988 Tennant Creek earthquakes. More than 20000 aftershocks have been recorded at Warramunga and activity continues to the present‐day with occasional shocks felt in the town of Tennant Creek and some recent off‐fault aftershocks located directly under the Warramunga seismic array. Stratigraphic relationships exposed in trenches excavated across the scarps suggest that during the Quaternary, a large earthquake ruptured the surface along one segment of the 1988 scarps.  相似文献   

Reassessment of flood frequency using historical information for the River Ouse at York,UK (1200–2000)     

Neil Macdonald  Andrew R. Black 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(7):1152-1162

Abstract

The reassessment of flood risk at York, UK, is pertinent in light of major flooding in November 2000, and heightened concerns of a perceived increase in flooding nationally. Systematic flood level readings from 1877 and a wealth of documentary records dating back as far as 1263 AD give the City of York a long and rich history of flood records. This extended flood record provides an opportunity to reassess estimates of flood frequency over a time scale not normally possible within flood frequency analysis. This paper re-evaluates flood frequency at York, considering the strengths and weaknesses in estimates resulting from four contrasting methods of analysis and their corresponding data: (a) single-site analysis of gauged annual maxima; (b) pooled analysis of multi-site gauged annual maxima; (c) combined analysis of systematic annual maxima augmented with historical peaks, and (d) analysis of only the very largest peaks using a Generalized Pareto Distribution. Use of the historical information was found to yield risk estimates which were lower and considered to be more credible than those achieved using gauged records alone.

Citation Macdonald, N. & Black, A. R. (2010) Reassessment of flood frequency using historical information for the River Ouse at York, UK (1200–2000). Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(7), 1152–1162.  相似文献   

带有低通滤波的广义S变换在探地雷达层位识别中的应用   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

张先武  高云泽  方广有 《地球物理学报》2013,56(1):309-316

同其它分析时变信号的方法相比,S变换具有独特的优点.但是S变换的时窗函数形式固定,限制了其在信号分析和处理中的应用.针对这一问题,本文对S变换进行了改进和推广,在S变换的时窗函数中引入调节参数,同时将低通滤波函数融入其中,提出了一种广义S变换.通过调节参数大小来调节广义S变换的时间分辨率和频率分辨率,从而使该变换具有很强的适用性.本文使用该变换对实测探地雷达数据进行了层位识别研究,取得了较好的效果.  相似文献   

广义Ertel-Rossby不变量在北京“7.21”暴雨过程分析中的应用     

周玉淑  李娜  孙明生 《气候与环境研究》2014,19(3):303-310

在绝热无摩擦大气中,具有守恒性及可反演性的Ertel位涡(PV)在大尺度天气系统分析中有广泛应用。由于忽略了力管项的作用,PV用于分析中小尺度天气系统演变时受到局限。从广义速度推导得到的广义Ertel-Rossby不变量(GERI)除了包含有PV的守恒性,还包含了螺旋度效应及力管项的作用,对于分析研究快变流型的中小尺度系统演变有一定优势。用GERI分析2012年7月21日北京地区的特大暴雨过程,表明GERI在暴雨区有明显的异常出现,其异常基本与暴雨出现时间同位相,表明GERI的定义涵盖了螺旋度和PV,也包含了暴雨发生时的旋转斜压大气的力管项效应,确实能体现暴雨过程中的流型快变的特点,可以作为独立的变量来分析和揭示造成暴雨的低涡系统的动力结构,为诊断和预报暴雨落区提供新的动力物理量。  相似文献